Evolution of Argentina’s Macroeconomic Stabilization Plan

The box reviews the evolution of Argentina’s macroeconomic stabilization plan after the October 2025 legislative elections. It covers the consolidation of political support and improvement in financial conditions, the January 2026 widening of the exchange-rate bands and the BCRA’s reserves accumulation programme, the persistence of fiscal balance as the central pillar (a primary surplus of around 1.4% of GDP in 2025), and the recent loss of momentum in activity together with renewed inflationary pressures and the limits of using the exchange rate as a nominal anchor.

The analytical core of the box uses the GTAP computable general equilibrium model to quantify the long-run macroeconomic gains from ongoing reforms. Two exercises are run: (i) a partial (50%) and a full elimination of tariffs on capital goods and ICT products, which raise GDP by about 1.3% and 2.7% respectively relative to the baseline; and (ii) a productivity shock calibrated to the recent regulatory reforms (+1.9%) and a longer-term convergence of Argentina’s product-market regulation toward OECD standards, with GDP gains of around 2.4% and 5.9%. The box concludes that the structural reform agenda can deliver sizeable medium- and long-term gains, conditional on the continuity and credibility of the reform process.

Recommended citation: Vidal, E., Moreno-López, M. & Rodríguez, A. (2026). "Evolución del plan de estabilización macroeconómica en Argentina", Recuadro 2 en Banco de España, Informe de Economía Latinoamericana. Primer semestre de 2026.
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